By Zainab Shafiq 
Bitcoin soars to a six-week high Wednesday, nearing $118,000, on surging optimism that soft U.S. jobs data could finally unlock Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The flagship crypto peaked at $117,713, just shy of challenging September’s ceiling. Analysts framed dips, even amid government shutdown jitters, as prime “buy opportunities,” asserting the market views the shutdown mostly as a non-event.
Weak Jobs Data Fuels Rate Cut Hopes
The catalyst behind this rally is a surprising deceleration in U.S. labor markets. Private sector jobs reportedly turned negative, and overall employment gains were far below forecasts. Such weakness raises the probability of at least a 0.25 % Fed rate cut this month, which in turn is stoking demand for crypto and other risk assets.
Markets are pricing in aggressive easing: tools like the CME FedWatch show near certainty of a cut, placing Bitcoin among the chief beneficiaries of newfound liquidity.
Technical Levels & Market Sentiment
Traders are pointing to $112,000 as near-term support. If Bitcoin clears September’s resistance zone around $117,700–$118,000, the path toward fresh highs becomes clearer.
Some analysts believe a weekly close above this zone could unleash a stronger breakout, potentially targeting new highs beyond mid-August levels.
The rally is being underpinned by renewed spot ETF inflows, which have helped push BTC past the liquidity wall near $117,000.
Shutdown Drama? Markets Shrug
Despite speculation over a U.S. government shutdown, equity markets reacted with composure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened higher, suggesting investor confidence remained intact. Analysts at QCP Capital noted that past shutdowns, like the 2018 case, often saw equity markets rally. They label the current shutdown fears largely a “non-event” in market terms.
With core regulatory and financial institutions furloughing staff, some worry about delayed data releases or policy paralysis. Yet for now, markets appear unfazed.
Broader Market Context
Gold is consolidating after recently reaching record highs, while equity markets maintain strong footing in this risk-on environment.
This cross-asset stability reinforces the idea that macro sentiment is favoring assets tied to accommodative policy.
Risks & Watch-Outs as Bitcoin Soars
Though the momentum is bullish, several caveats exist:
- Volatility risk: Sudden policy shifts or unexpected economic data could quickly reverse gains.
- Rate cut credibility: If inflation or data surprises harden, the Fed may delay easing.
- Profit-taking zones: Resistance above $118,000 may trigger pullbacks by traders locking in gains.
- Data reliability: With the federal shutdown underway, official reporting may slow, increasing reliance on private metrics.
Final Word
Bitcoin’s push toward $118,000 is grounded in a changing macro narrative: weak employment, rising rate cut expectations, and continued institutional participation. The rally’s technical setup is compelling, and many now see dips, even as the U.S. slides toward shutdown, as opportunities to buy. While the move is not without risk, the momentum is in favor of bulls as long as macro conditions remain supportive.
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