By Digital Spartans 
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is widely expected to maintain its policy rate at 11.5 percent at its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting on September 14, 2026.
According to a survey conducted by Arif Habib Limited (AHL), a large majority of market participants expect the central bank to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged.
The AHL survey found that 87.5 percent of respondents anticipate no change in the policy rate. Meanwhile, 12.5 percent of participants expect the SBP to raise the rate by 50 basis points.
The expectations come ahead of the SBP’s September monetary policy announcement, which will provide an important indication of the central bank’s assessment of inflation, economic activity and financial conditions.
Keeping the policy rate at 11.5 percent would signal a cautious approach as policymakers continue to assess developments in Pakistan’s economy. Interest rate decisions are closely watched by businesses, investors, banks and consumers.
The policy rate influences borrowing costs across the economy. When rates remain elevated, businesses and consumers may face higher financing costs, while changes in the rate can also affect savings, investment and overall economic activity.
The September meeting is part of the SBP’s scheduled monetary policy calendar for 2026-27. The central bank has announced several monetary policy meetings throughout the fiscal year to review economic and financial developments.
The previous Monetary Policy Committee meeting was held on July 27, 2026. The next meeting is scheduled for September 14, followed by further meetings in October, December, January, March, April and June.
Market expectations can change before a monetary policy announcement as new economic data becomes available. Inflation figures, exchange rate movements, external financing conditions and domestic economic activity can all influence expectations about interest rates.
For businesses, the policy decision will be important because the benchmark rate affects the broader cost of credit. A decision to maintain the rate could provide greater stability for companies planning their financing and investment decisions.
Investors will also be watching the SBP’s communication for clues about the future direction of monetary policy. Even if the rate remains unchanged, the central bank’s assessment of inflation and economic risks could influence market expectations.
The possibility of a 50-basis-point increase remains part of the market outlook, although it is currently supported by a much smaller share of respondents in the AHL survey.
The September 14 decision will therefore be closely monitored across Pakistan’s financial markets. The announcement and accompanying policy assessment could provide further guidance about the SBP’s approach to inflation and economic growth in the months ahead.
For now, the AHL survey indicates that maintaining the 11.5 percent policy rate is the dominant expectation among surveyed market participants. The final decision, however, will rest with the State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee.